U.S. Ad spending: Bounceback how big?

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eMarketer estimates that US online advertising spending will reach $25.1 billion in 2010, representing 10.8% growth over last year. Relatively healthy economic gains, along with the ongoing shift of marketing dollars from traditional to digital media, have contributed to the double-digit increase.

eMarketer’s previous estimate, made in December 2009, was for spending of $23.6 billion, or a 5.5% increase. The current projected growth rates for 2011 through 2014, however, are in the same ballpark as our previous predictions.

One contributor to the altered 2010 estimate comes from the quicker-than-expected uptick in the US economy. This shift has a twofold effect: more shopping by consumers, most readily seen in search ad expenditures, and a greater willingness among companies of all sizes to spend a bit more for marketing in general.

That greater spending has also contributed to the ongoing shift of marketing dollars away from traditional media toward the Internet and other digital advertising. Brand marketers in particular recognize more than ever that connecting with target audiences means more spending for interactive.

However, continued economic hurdles, combined with corporate qualms about a renewal of the recession set off by the EU’s debt crisis, could put more of a damper than anticipated on spending by both companies and consumers. Much is still unknown, but it’s clear that a larger portion of total media ad spending will migrate to the Internet, even if overall ad spending remains stagnant.

Key questions this report answers:

What will cause online advertising to grow again in 2010 and subsequent years? How do the spending trends reflect larger advertising and marketing trends? Which Internet ad formats will show the greatest increases, and why? What structural forces are changing total media ad spending forever? How might economic turmoil affect companies' spending?eMarketer estimates that US online advertising spending will reach $25.1 billion in 2010, representing 10.8% growth over last year. Relatively healthy economic gains, along with the ongoing shift of marketing dollars from traditional to digital media, have contributed to the double-digit increase.

US Online Advertising Spending, 2008-2014 (billions and % change)

Key eMarketer Numbers: US Advertising Spending

US Online Advertising Spending Growth, 2008-2014 (% change)

US Online Advertising Spending, 2008-2014 (billions)

US Online Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total Media Advertising Spending, 2008-2014

US Online Advertising Spending Growth, Q1 2008-Q4 2010 (% change)

US Online Advertising Spending, Q1 2008-Q4 2010 (billions)Reasons for Total Internet Forecasts

US Online Advertising Revenue Share, by Pricing Model, 2005-2009 (% of total)

US Online Advertising Revenues for the Top 10, 25 and 50 Advertising-Selling Companies as a Percent of Total Online Advertising Spending, 2005-2009

Net US Advertising Revenues at Top Four Portals as a Percent of Total Online Advertising Spending, Q1 2009-Q1 2010

Net US Advertising Revenue Growth at Top Four Portals, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 (% change*)

Net US Advertising Revenue Growth at Top Portals, 2008-2011 (% change)

US Companies that Say Privacy Concerns Limit or Curtail Online Behavioral Advertising Spending, March 2010 (% of respondents)

Percent of Online Ad Purchases US Companies Don't Spend on Online Behavioral Advertising due to Privacy Concerns, March 2010 (% of respondents)

US Local Advertising Spending Growth, Traditional vs. Online, 2009-2014 (% change)

US Local Advertising Spending Share, Traditional vs. Online, 2008-2014 (% of total)

Areas in Which US Small-Business Owners Plan to Increase Spending, 2008-2010 (% of respondents)

Marketing/Advertising Areas in Which US Small-Business Owners Plan on Focusing Most of Their Resources in 2010 (% of respondents)

Interactive Marketing Tactics US Marketers Spent the Most on in 2009 (% of respondents)

Online Marketing Tactics for Which US and UK Senior Marketers Have Increased* Spending, October 2009 (% of respondents)

Interactive Marketing Budget Change* According to US Marketers, 2009 & 2010 (% of respondents)

Methods Used by US Marketers* to Allocate Traditional and Online Marketing Budgets, January 2010 (% of respondents)

US Marketing Spending, by Segment, 2000-2010 (billions and % of total)

Areas of Marketing Spending Growth* According to US Marketers, February 2010 (% change)

US Online Advertising Spending, by Format, 2009-2014 (millions)

Top 10 US Online Display Ad Publishers, Ranked by Impressions, Q1 2010 (billions and % of total)

US Online Advertising Spending Share, by Format, 2009-2014 (% of total and billions)

US Online Advertising Spending Growth, by Format, 2009-2014 (% change)

US Online Advertising Spending's Annual Increases or Decreases, by Format, 2009-2014 (millions)

US Total Media Advertising Spending, 2008-2014 (billions)

US Total Media Advertising Spending Growth, 2008-2014 (% change)Reasons for Total Media Forecasts

Expected Change in Advertising Budget in the Next Six Months According to US Marketers, 2008-2010 (% of respondents)

US Total Media Advertising Spending as a Percent of US GDP, 2000-2009

US Advertising and Marketing Spending Growth, by Media, 2008-2012 (% change)

Channels from Which Budgets Will Be Shifted to Online Video in 2010 According to US Advertisers/Agencies* (% of respondents)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (billions)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Advertising Spending Growth, 2009-2014 (% change)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total Media Advertising Spending, 2009-2014

Comparative Estimates: US Search Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (billions)

Comparative Estimates: US Search Advertising Spending Growth, 2009-2014 (% change)

Comparative Estimates: US Search Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total Online Advertising Spending, 2009-2014

Comparative Estimates: US Online Display* Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (billions)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Display* Advertising Spending Growth, 2009-2014 (% change)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Display* Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total Online Advertising Spending, 2009-2014

Comparative Estimates: US Online Video Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (millions)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Video Advertising Spending Growth, 2009-2014 (% change)

Comparative Estimates: US Online Video Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total Online Advertising Spending, 2009-2014

Comparative Estimates: US Online Video Advertising Spending as a Percent of Total TV* Advertising Spending, 2009-2014

Comparative Estimates: US Total Media Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (billions)

Comparative Estimates: US Total Media Advertising Spending Growth, 2009-2014 (% change)

Comparative Estimates: US Total Media Advertising Spending Growth Without Online Advertising Spending, 2009-2014 (% change)

US Advertising and Marketing Spending Growth, by Media, 2008-2012 (% change)115192 | 115193 | 115194 | 115195 | 115198 | 115201 | 115202 | 115203